How will India reach the final of the Test Championship? Depends on South Africa and Pakistan, read the complete equation

New Zealand, England, Bangladesh and West Indies are already out of the race to make it to the final. No team is guaranteed a place in the final yet.

Team India’s defeat at the hands of Australia in the Adelaide Test has made the battle for the final of the World Test Championship more interesting. Many teams are contenders to reach the final. Apart from India, these include teams like Australia, South Africa and Sri Lanka. There are 10 Tests left in the current World Test Championship (WTC) cycle. According to ESPNcricinfo, no team is guaranteed a place in the final yet.

South Africa team – Photo: CSA

What are the equations for South Africa?

South Africa are leading the World Test Championship table with 63.33 points percentage and have two matches to play against Pakistan at home. Their recent 2-0 clean sweep against Sri Lanka has put them in a strong position. They need to win just one of the upcoming Tests against Pakistan to make it to the final. A 1-1 series draw will leave them with 61.11 percent and only India or Australia can overtake them.

If both the Tests against Pakistan are drawn, South Africa will finish on 58.33 percent. In such a scenario, India will have to beat Australia 3-2 and Australia will have to win both Tests in Sri Lanka to overtake South Africa. If South Africa lose the series 1-0, they will have to convince Australia not to win more than two of their remaining five Tests or India not to win more than one or draw more than one of their remaining three Tests against Australia.

Sri Lanka team – Photo: Twitter

What is the equation for Sri Lanka?
Sri Lanka currently has 45.45 points percentage and it has two home matches left against Australia. Even if they win both the Tests, they will only be able to reach 53.85 points percentage and will have to depend on other results. Either South Africa, India or Australia can cross this percentage. The most accurate equation for Sri Lanka is that they win both the Tests against Australia first, then convince Australia to win the series 2-1 against India and two Tests are drawn. Not only this, Sri Lanka will also have to convince South Africa to lose both the Tests to Pakistan. In such a situation, both India and South Africa will be out, because their point percentage will be less.

Indian team – Photo : BCCI

What are the equations for India?

India have to play three more Tests against Australia. To ensure a place in the final, they need two wins and a draw which will take them to 60.53 percentage points. In such a situation, the team will be second in the table after South Africa. If India wins the series 3-2, it will be 58.77 percent and in this situation, even if Australia beats Sri Lanka 1-0, they will still be below India in the table. However, if India loses the series 2-3, they will finish at 53.51 percent, giving Australia, Sri Lanka and South Africa a chance to overtake the Indian team. In this situation, if India wants to qualify with 53.51 points percentage, then it will have to convince South Africa to lose both the Tests against Pakistan and Australia to draw at least one match in Sri Lanka.

All equations of the World Test Championship

Series scoreline Who will play in the final?

South Africa Africa 2-0 Pakistan, India 3-1 Australia, Australia 2-0 Sri Lanka India and South Africa
S. Africa 1-1 Pakistan, India 3-1 Australia, Australia 2-0 Sri Lanka India and South Africa
S. Africa 2-0 Pakistan or South Africa 1-1 Pakistan,
India 3-2 Australia, Australia 2-0 Sri Lanka Australia and South Africa
S. Africa 2-0 Pakistan or South Africa 1-1 Pakistan,
India 3-2 Australia, Australia 1-1 Sri Lanka India and South Africa
S. Africa 2-0 Pakistan or South Africa 1-1 Pakistan,
India 2-2 Australia, Australia 1-1 Sri Lanka Australia and South Africa
S. Africa 2-0 Pakistan or South Africa 1-1 Pakistan,
India 2-2 Australia, Australia 0-2 Sri Lanka India and South Africa
S. Africa 2-0 Pakistan or South Africa 1-1 Pakistan,
India 2-1 Australia, Australia 2-0 Sri Lanka Australia and South Africa
S. Africa 2-0 Pakistan or South Africa 1-1 Pakistan,
India 2-1 Australia, Australia 1-1 Sri Lanka India and South Africa
Pakistan 2-0 South Africa, India 2-2 Australia, Australia 2-0 Sri Lanka India and Australia
Pakistan 2-0 South Africa, Australia 3-2 India,
Australia 2-0 Sri Lanka or Australia 1-1 Sri Lanka India and Australia
Pakistan 2-0 South Africa, India 3-1 Australia, Australia 2-0 Sri Lanka India and Australia
Pakistan 2-0 South Africa, India 4-1 Australia, Australia 2-0 Sri Lanka India and Australia

Australian team – Photo: Twitter

What are the equations for Australia?

Australia’s current point percentage is 60.71 and they have three Tests against India and two against Sri Lanka to play. They need to win two of the three Tests against India to secure a place in the final. Even if they lose both the Tests in Sri Lanka, a 3-2 series win against India will give them 55.26 point percentage which will be higher than India’s 53.51 percent and Sri Lanka’s 53.85 percent. If Australia lose 2-3, India will reach 58.77 percent and Australia will need to win both the Tests in Sri Lanka to overtake India. Alternatively, they will also have to hope that South Africa do not draw more than one match against Pakistan. In this case, South Africa’s point percentage will be 55.56. In such a situation, Australia can qualify for the final with one draw and one win in Sri Lanka.

Pakistan team – Photo : PCB

Pakistan’s chances of qualifying
Pakistan’s current points percentage is 33.33. However, there is little chance of them qualifying. Even with four wins from their remaining four matches, Pakistan will finish on 52.38 points percentage and remain below South Africa’s 52.78 percentage. If South Africa loses a match, Pakistan will drop to 52.08 percentage. Several other results have to go in their favour for Pakistan to be mathematically possible to finish second behind Australia or India. However, the chances of this are extremely low. New Zealand, England, Bangladesh and West Indies are already out of the race to make it to the final.