Will NDA Keep Edge Over RJD-Cong As Bihar Votes? Or Will Kishor Play Spoiler?

The Modi-Nitish combine is also supported by the BJP’s well-oiled organisational machinery, with the party’s formidable booth-level management ensuring that popular appeal is effectively converted into votes. — Internet

The NDA’s Rs 62,000-crore pre-poll package has given the ruling side a clear edge, forcing the Mahagathbandhan’s key players — the RJD and the Congress — to recalibrate their strategy

With the Election Commission announcing the schedule for the Bihar Assembly elections, the stage is set for another high-voltage political contest. As chief minister Nitish Kumar and Rashtriya Janata Dal leader Tejashwi Yadav prepare to battle it out for the top job, the entry of poll strategist Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party has added a new dimension to what has traditionally been a bipolar contest.

While Mr Kishor’s political prospects are the subject of intense discussion, the ruling National Democratic Alliance, led by the BJP and Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (U), has added to the debate with a slew of pre-poll welfare schemes. Promises of cash incentives to unemployed youth, interest-free education loans and higher pensions have ensured the campaign is not just about identity politics but is also transactional.

The NDA’s Rs 62,000-crore pre-poll package has given the ruling side a clear edge, forcing the Mahagathbandhan’s key players — the RJD and the Congress — to recalibrate their strategy. Their earlier focus on “vote chori” and the alleged mass deletion of voters’ names no longer resonates with voters, who are more interested in immediate benefits. With the two political rivals offering financial support to the poor and marginalised, it is advantage NDA as the incumbent government can deliver immediately on its promises while the Opposition can only do so in the future.

The NDA’s focus on welfarism is not just aimed at blunting the Opposition’s “vote chori” campaign but also to counter anti-incumbency against the government, particularly among the youth, who are frustrated by Bihar’s broken education system and growing unemployment. Though it is too early to predict the final electoral outcome, the NDA appears to be the front-runner in this contest. It is banking on Nitish Kumar’s welfare schemes, caste arithmetic and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s charisma to retain power in this electorally-important state.

Nitish Kumar remains a curious case. Despite a visible dip in popularity, especially among younger voters, the JD(U) leader is still indispensable to the NDA, forcing the BJP to declare him as the NDA’s chief ministerial candidate. The JD(U) leader enjoys the support of women voters and the economically backward classes, constituting 36 per cent of the population. The recently announced Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana, offering Rs 10,000 to 75 lakh women for livelihood schemes, is expected to further consolidate this base.

The Modi-Nitish combine is also supported by the BJP’s well-oiled organisational machinery, with the party’s formidable booth-level management ensuring that popular appeal is effectively converted into votes. However, the NDA cannot afford to be over-confident. Candidate selection and alliance cohesion are equally crucial factors. Wary of BJP attempts to play big brother, the JD(U) is demanding a greater share of seats while smaller allies like Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party have also stepped up their demands,

For the Opposition, this election was an ideal opportunity to capitalise on growing disillusionment with over a decade of NDA rule. But it appears to have frittered way this chance. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav did succeed in grabbing public attention during their joint yatra, focusing on the disenfranchisement of lakhs of voters through the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision of the voters’ list. But the “vote chori” campaign lost traction once the yatra ended as the Congress does not have a robust organisation to keep up the momentum generated by Rahul Gandhi’s efforts in the field. The Opposition’s charge that 47 lakh names have been deleted from the voters’ list has, at best, elicited an indifferent response from voters, who are more focused on immediate financial gain promised by the NDA’s aggressive welfare pitch.

Besides mixed messaging, the Opposition’s campaign has also suffered because of a lack of cohesion. Seat-sharing talks within the Mahagathbandhan have become a prickly affair, especially after the inclusion of three more alliance partners. Unlike the NDA, which is clear on leadership, the Congress’ reluctance to publicly endorse Tejashwi Yadav as the Opposition’s chief ministerial candidate has led to speculation about tensions within the alliance.

The Congress maintains it is a strategic move, aimed at expanding the alliance’s social base beyond the Muslim-Yadav vote bank to include the economically backward classes. Projecting Tejashwi, it believes, could alienate them as it would revive memories of the atrocities committed by the more powerful Yadavs against those lower in the caste hierarchy. Whatever the explanation, the public perception about cracks in the alliance refuses to go away.

Any election in Bihar is always difficult to predict. But this time, the wild card entry of Prashant Kishor’s fledgling Jan Suraaj Party has added more than a dash of uncertainty to the contest. The former poll strategist, who has helped deliver winning campaigns for major leaders like Narendra Modi, Mamata Banerjee and Nitish Kumar, has entered the political arena himself. For over a year now, Mr Kishor has been conducting padayatras through Bihar’s hinterland, establishing a connection with people at the grassroots. His focus on state-specific issues, governance reform and clean politics has struck a chord with young voters who are seeking a break from the state’s traditional caste and dynastic politics. Having decided to contest all 243 Assembly seats, it is unclear if Mr Kishor’s promise of a fresh political approach will yield results as his party lacks a strong organisational structure. However, the newbie party could play spoiler, especially in closely contested seats.

The suspense is mounting and with a month to go for the election, people of Bihar will soon have their say. Will they opt for stability and continuity or prefer a change. For now, the contest is wide open though the NDA enjoys an edge over its rivals thanks to its welfare schemes and strong leadership. The answer will be known on November 14.