Reg No. - CHHBIL/2010/41479ISSN - 2582-919X
Trump’s return has increased Iran’s problems! Is a new nuclear agreement possible between the two countries?
The US withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran in 2018 (Photo- Reuters)
Donald Trump ended the nuclear deal with Iran during his first term. The Joe Biden administration that came after him tried to bring Iran back to the deal but was unsuccessful. Now Trump is in power once again, after which discussions have started between the US and Iran about a new nuclear deal.
The old nuclear deal between the US and Iran
In May 2018, during his first term, Trump withdrew the US from the nuclear deal with Iran. Trump had described this deal as a one-sided agreement. As soon as he was out of the deal, Trump intensified his strategy of pressure on Iran which included 12 demands. Most of those demands were not related to the nuclear deal but were related to Iran’s regional activities. Trump demanded a ban on its support for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, military intervention in Iraq and Yemen and its ballistic missile program.
What is the situation now
In the last four years, Iran has advanced its nuclear enrichment to a great extent. On January 22, Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said that Iran is moving very fast to enrich its uranium close to weapons grade.
According to a November 2024 IAEA report, Iran’s total enriched uranium reserves stood at 6,604 kg, of which Iran has an estimated 182.3 kg of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity, about 42 kg of uranium enough for one nuclear bomb. Uranium needs to be enriched to more than 90 percent to make a nuclear bomb and Iran is making great progress in this direction. Iran already has the enriched uranium needed to make four nuclear bombs.
Another December 2024 IAEA report indicated that Iran was establishing the capability to make weapons-grade uranium under the guise of making 60 percent highly enriched uranium. The report said that Iran could possibly produce weapons-grade uranium even without using its existing stocks. If this is true, it is alarming.
Meanwhile, another factor must be considered: Over the past 15 months, and especially since April 2024, Iran has suffered repeated setbacks in the Gaza war. Its regional strategy of fighting Israel through proxy groups has collapsed and its economy is in decline.
In addition, the country is in a period of political fragility with the death of President Raisi in a plane crash in May 2024, as well as uncertainty over the succession of Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei. Khamenei is 85 years old and in poor health.
In this vulnerable position, the nuclear program is Iran’s only means of dealing with the US and it will therefore not return to the deal without concrete assurances from the international community.
What are the options?
Trump’s return has again raised the threat of a maximum pressure strategy on Iran. However, Trump has indicated a willingness to pursue diplomacy. In a recent interview, he stressed that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is his first concern.
Similarly, Iranian officials have also shown interest in the talks. The meeting with European partners in Geneva on January 13 has been described by Iranian officials as “serious, clear and constructive”. In view of this, it is expected that both sides want to give the talks a chance. In such a situation, what will the new nuclear agreement between the US and Iran be like?
What will the new agreement be like?
The nuclear deal signed between the US and Iran in July 2015 imposed strict restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program. Under the sanctions, Iran could only run 5,000 first-generation IR-1 centrifuges to enrich uranium. It could enrich uranium only up to 3.67 percent. All uranium enriched up to 20 percent was to be destroyed or shipped out, the main part of its heavy water plant in Arak was to be destroyed and most importantly, Iran agreed to “anywhere, anytime” IAEA inspections of its nuclear facilities.
But this deal was canceled in May 2018. Along with this, some key provisions of the original deal, such as the ban on Iran using only first-generation centrifuges (IR-1) for uranium enrichment, are going to expire in 2025 under the “sunset clause”. Some other clauses remain in place until 2030, such as a ban on uranium enrichment up to 3.67 percent purity and a 300-kilogram limit on its enriched uranium stockpile.
These terms of the deal will have to be renegotiated for any new deal to be negotiated. Iran is unlikely to renegotiate the terms it agreed to in the 2015 nuclear deal. So what is the way out?
The US will have to negotiate a new limit at which Iran will limit its nuclear program in new nuclear deal talks. The current threat, as the IAEA has said, is from uranium enriched up to 60 percent purity. Iran could be forced to agree to stop enriching uranium up to 60 percent and hand over its already enriched stockpile to a neutral agency.
Any deal would require Iran to open its nuclear labs and sites to IAEA inspectors and allow monitoring of enrichment through cameras etc., as well as a written assurance that Iran does not seek nuclear weapons.
In return, Iran would demand the withdrawal of economic sanctions and a “solid” assurance that the US will not cancel the deal in the future. It could also demand that other issues related to the nuclear issue, such as the ballistic missile program, be kept out of the talks.
The US may work by taking into account some of Iran’s concerns and perhaps even change the red line set for Iran. Recently, while talking to Fox News, Trump had clearly said, “All I said was that they cannot have nuclear weapons.”
What will the new deal be like?
The nuclear deal signed between the US and Iran in July 2015 imposed strict restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program. The sanctions meant that Iran could only run 5,000 first-generation IR-1 centrifuges to enrich uranium. It could enrich uranium only up to 3.67 percent. All uranium enriched up to 20 percent was to be destroyed or shipped out, the main part of its heavy water plant in Arak was to be destroyed and most importantly, Iran agreed to “anywhere, anytime” IAEA inspections of its nuclear facilities.
But the deal was canceled in May 2018. Along with this, some key provisions of the original deal, such as the ban on Iran using only first-generation centrifuges (IR-1) for uranium enrichment, are going to expire in 2025 under the “sunset clause”. Some other clauses remain in place until 2030, including a ban on uranium enrichment to 3.67 per cent purity and a 300-kilogram limit on its enriched uranium stockpile.
For any new deal to be negotiated, these terms of the agreement will have to be renegotiated. There is no chance that Iran will ever agree to the terms of the nuclear deal it agreed to in 2015. So what is the way out?
If deal is not reached, then a long deadlock will continue between Iran and America
If there is no agreement between America and Iran, then a long deadlock can arise between the two countries. In the past decades, Iran has tried to thwart American sanctions. It has been successful to a great extent in this by increasing relations with allies like Russia and China. If America keeps sanctions on Iran for a long time, then it will also increase domestic support for the Iranian regime, which can weaken America’s objectives.
America has tried many times to change the regime in Iran through economic pressure, but this strategy has been ineffective. This is because Iran’s leadership has maintained power despite internal and external challenges.
Military attack on Iran’s nuclear plants is a controversial option. However, Israel has been advocating it. But targeting Iran’s nuclear plants is not an easy task because they are very strong, buried under mountains and their security is very strong, due to which there is very little possibility of them being damaged by missile or air strikes. If Iran’s nuclear plants are attacked, it will be a red line for Iran which can provoke Iran to accelerate its nuclear program, which can lead Iran to move towards making nuclear weapons within a few weeks. Such an outcome will significantly change the security landscape of the region, which will have a wide-reaching impact on global stability.
In a volatile and turbulent region like the Middle East, where the 15-month war in Gaza has forever changed the regional security landscape, the time and opportunity of Trump’s next four years cannot be wasted in deadlock.
(Author: Colonel Rajiv Agarwal, Retd. In his 30-year career, Rajiv Agarwal has held important roles including Director in Military Intelligence and Director in the Ministry of External Affairs. The views expressed in this article are the author’s own.)