MF Projects Indian Economy to Grow at 6.6% in FY 2025

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during a news conference (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

India is set to outpace China, which is expected to grow at 4.8%

New Delhi: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted that India will continue to be one of the fastest-growing ’emerging market and developing economies’ in 2025–26, growing at a rate of 6.6%, according to the World Economic Outlook (WEO) report. This upward revision is attributed to strong economic performance in the first quarter, which has more than offset the effects of increased US tariffs on Indian goods.

India is set to outpace China, which is expected to grow at 4.8%. The IMF released its revised projections following the effects of US tariffs across various economies and the subsequent deals made between countries amid growing uncertainty.

However, the IMF has lowered its 2026 projection to 6.2%, citing a potential fading of first-quarter momentum. With the effects of tariffs proving lower than expected, the IMF projects global growth at 3.2% in 2025, while slowing to 3.1% the following year. These projections, however, remain below the pre-policy-shift forecasts.

Inflation is projected to continue to decline globally, though with variations across countries—remaining above target in the United States, with risks tilted to the upside, and subdued elsewhere, the IMF report noted.

Advanced economies are expected to grow at an average rate of 1.6%, whereas emerging economies are set to grow at 4.2%, with the 2026 projection predicting a 0.2% slowdown. The IMF also predicts that Spain will be the fastest-growing advanced economy, expanding at 2.9%. The United States is projected to grow at 1.9%, down from 2.4% in 2024. Meanwhile, forecasts for Brazil stand at 2.4%, Canada at 1.2%, and Japan at 1.1%, while the ASEAN-5 countries are also expected to sustain moderate growth.

The October WEO IMF predictions are up relative to their April forecasts but remain lower than pre-tariff policy expectations. Despite India’s rapid growth, the IMF predicts global growth will slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2026.

The IMF also warned that “prolonged uncertainty, more protectionism, and labour supply shocks” could further dampen growth, while “fiscal vulnerabilities, potential financial market corrections, and erosion of institutions” could threaten global stability.

The Fund urged policymakers to restore confidence through credible, transparent, and sustainable policies, pairing trade diplomacy with macroeconomic adjustment. “Fiscal buffers should be rebuilt. Central bank independence should be preserved. Efforts on structural reforms should be redoubled,” the IMF said.

Earlier in October, the IMF announced its revisions to forecasts, projecting an upward growth to 6.6%. That revision was largely due to India’s strong growth momentum in the first quarter of FY26, when the economy grew at 7.8%. The upward revision is mainly due to the carryover effect from that strong quarter, rather than any offsetting effect from recent US tariffs.

In 2024–25, the Indian economy grew by 6.5% in real terms. The government has maintained its GDP forecast at 6.3–6.8% for 2025–26, even amid US tariff uncertainty, affirming confidence in the country’s robust domestic consumption.

( Source : ANI )