West Bengal elections: Trinamool involved in 64% of the poll violence in past decade 

South 24 Parganas: Remains of burnt vehicles after the violence during nominations for Panchayat elections, in South 24 Parganas district of West Bengal, June 16, 2023.- Photo Credit: -Reuters

BJP ranks second with 27.14%, followed by CPI(M) accounting to 10.5% of the violence

Story so far: Within three days of the announcement of the dates to the West Bengal elections, six violent incidents were noted by independent conflict monitor — Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED). Five of these involve Trinamool Congress members (83.33%) – two against Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) members and three involve Trinamool factions. One incident involves factions of Communist Party of India – Marxist [(CPI(M)] damaging party offices. 

A study of 16 elections held in large States (with over 200 Assembly seats) in the past decade pegged ranked Bengal as the most violent. Our analysis of the four elections held between 2015 and 2026 – Assembly elections in 2016, 2021 and Panchayat elections in 2018 and 2023, showed violence steadily increase the decade. While 172 violent incidents were reported by ACLED in 2016, it rose to 278 in 2021 State elections – a 61.62% jump. On Panchayat level, the rise is from 155 incidents in 2018 to 327 in 2023 elections – a 110% jump. 

A closer look at these elections, show Trinamool members most involved /instigate the violence, with CPI(M) being its most frequent involved party/target in 2016, only to be replaced by BJP since 2018. For this analysis, the time period under scrutiny is from the date the EC announced the election schedule to the formation of government, and in case of Panchayat elections, a period of four days after results were declared. Types of attacks in consideration are riots instigated by party members on (i) civilians, (ii) clashes with other parties, (iii) intra-party clashes between factions (iv) clashes with security personnel and (v) attack on other parties. Clashes where the perpetrators are unknown are also considered

Trinamool Congress

In 2016, Trinamool was involved in 118 of the 172 violent incidents reported. Of these, Trinamool was the perpetrator in 75 instances (63.56%) – attacking civilians such as voters, polling officials, journalists (18), CPI(M) members (31), BJP members (6), Congress (10) and other local parties like Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP), independent candidates (5) and other factions of Trinamool (5). In 39 cases, Trinamool members were involved in violent clashes with other party members/supporters – 33 incidents with CPI(M) and six with BJP. The violence often resulted in houses being set ablaze, human injuries and in three instances fatalities. 

By 2018, BJP replaced CPI(M) as Trinamool’s favoured target of violence. Of the 155 violent incidents reports, Trinamool was involved in 102. In 63 (64.7%) instances, Trinamool was the perpetrator and BJP was at the receiving end most (20), followed by civilians (17), other Trinamool factions (10). Nine times CPI(M) was the target, Congress (3) and others (4). In instances where clashes were between parties, BJP replaced CPI(M) as Trinamool’s top rival, logging 28 instances while CPI(M) had seven.  

Bloodier than State elections, 2018 Panchayat elections saw 27 instances where violence led to fatalities of civilians and relatives of candidates, and one sexual assault. The reason for violence ranged from preventing candidates from filling nominations, attack on ballot boxes to clashes with independent candidates. 

In 2021, the advent COVID-19 restrictions and an eight-phase State election did not stem the rise in attacks. Trinamool was involved in 178 (64%) of the 278 violent incidents reported that election season. Of these it was the perpetrator in 108 cases (60.67%) – BJP being at the receiving end in 87 instances, followed by CPI(M) in nine cases, others in seven. Fellow Trinamool factions were involved in clashes in three cases and Trinamool clashed with security personnel in one instance. In the 69 inter-party skirmishes, BJP retained its second rank by clashing with Trinamool on 66 occasions, while CPI(M) clashed on two and Congress on one case. 

Fatalities peaked, surpassing 2018 Panchayat elections. The violent rivalry between BJP and Trinamool clear as both parties suffered equal number of fatalities. Of the 40 instances where fatalities occurred, 16 were of Trinamool supporters allegedly killed by BJP supporters, while 17 were of BJP supporters/relatives killed by Trinamool supporters. In four cases, civilians were killed and one member each of CPI(M), Congress and ISF were killed by Trinamool supporters.  

2023 remains the bloodiest elections in Bengal’s history as 327 incidents of violence were reported. However, unlike the above three elections, Trinamool is the perpetrator in only 66 (33%) of the 198 instances of violence it is involved in – a 31.3% reduction since 2018. However, Trinamool’s clashes with other parties increased with BJP remaining its prime rival in 65 instances, CPI(M) in 33, Congress in 26, factions of Trinamool in 14 and security personnel in 8 cases. 

In the sixty instances where fatalities were reported, Trinamool suffered fatalities in 30 cases, followed by BJP (10), Congress (7) and four civilians were killed. CPI(M) and ISF suffered three fatalities each. 

CPI(M) & BJP

Between 2016 and 2026, CPI(M)’s involvement in violence gradually decreased from 40 instances in 2016 to five in 2021, before rising to 43 in 2023. Of the 98 instances CPI(M) was involved in through the years, it was the perpetrator in 20 (20.41%).

Meanwhile, BJP’s involvement has been increasing through the years – from 8 in 2016 to 125 cases in 2021, before dropping to 82 cases in 2023. Of the 253 cases of violence it has been involved in, BJP was the perpetrator in 84 (33.2%) cases. Data shows BJP replacing CPI(M) as Trinamool’s prime rival as it expands its electoral foothold in West Bengal. At the expense of CPI(M), BJP has become more violent and gained more seats.

Unidentified

Attacks by unidentified perpetrators have remained consistent between 2016 to 2021 but peaked in 2023. While CPI(M) was the prime target of unknown assailants in 2016, it has become less of a target nowadays. Similarly, BJP has become a bigger target as its foothold grew with eight instances of unknown assailants attacking BJP supporters in 2021. During this time period, Trinamool, which has been the most violent, has suffered seven attacks on an average from unknown perpetrators. 

Unique to the trend is 2023 Panchayat elections where 92 instances of attacks by unknown assailants were reported. While multiple parties may be victims in one instance, Trinamool bore the brunt of the attacks in 53 instances, closely followed by BJP which faced 43 attacks. CPI(M) and Congress face 13 and nine attacks respectively. It is likely that these ‘unknown assailants’ had affiliations to any of the above political parties. In 79 instances, both the assailants and victims are unknown. 

The 294-seat West Bengal assembly goes to vote in two phases on April 23 and April 29 this year. Results will be declared on May 4, 2026.