Alive or Just a Figurehead? Many Questions Surround Mojtaba Khamenei; Is the IRGC Running Iran?

Uncertainty persists regarding the leadership in Iran. (Photo: Reuters)

Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is reportedly alive yet remains unseen; he is injured, yet statements continue to be issued in his name. While the country continues to function, the true reins of power appear to lie in the hands of the IRGC, and the world has yet to discover who the real master of Tehran truly is. To date, two statements have surfaced from Khamenei, yet he has not been seen in person on a single occasion.

Tehran: There is scarcely another country in the world where a supreme leader could hold power for more than two weeks without making a single public appearance—no speeches, no photographs, and no video footage. Such is the current situation regarding Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

On February 28, the United States and Israel launched a major attack on Iran. During this assault, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed. This dealt a massive blow to Iran; however, the Iranian system did not grind to a halt. On March 9, Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was appointed as the new Supreme Leader. Yet, from that day until now, Mojtaba has not made a single public appearance. What exactly has happened to him?

Mojtaba was also injured in that very same attack on February 28 in which his father lost his life. According to Israeli and U.S. intelligence sources, he is indeed alive. However, his injuries are reportedly so severe that he is unable to appear in public. A U.S. official told Axios, “We do not believe the Iranians would have appointed a deceased individual as their Supreme Leader. However, it also remains unproven that he is the one actually running the country.”

Raz Zimmt, an Israeli expert on security affairs, stated, “His injuries are so severe that he cannot even release a video message, as doing so would reveal to the world just how dire his condition truly is.” So, what exactly has transpired thus far?

Mojtaba has issued statements on two separate occasions. However, in both instances, he did not deliver them personally; rather, they were read aloud by someone else. The first statement was released on March 12, and it was read out by a television news presenter. It stated that the fight against the United States would continue and that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed. On March 20—Nowruz, or the Iranian New Year—a second statement was issued. Once again, it was a written statement, read aloud by someone else. This statement lauded the Iranian people. On that same day, Iranian state media released an old video in which Mojtaba is seen imparting religious instruction at a seminary. However, the date of this video was not disclosed.

In whose hands does the real power lie? This is the paramount question. Citing U.S. and Israeli intelligence sources, the Israeli newspaper The Jerusalem Post reported that, at this moment, real power in Iran rests with the IRGC—the Revolutionary Guards. Mojtaba serves as the Supreme Leader in name; however, on the ground, the IRGC is operating entirely on its own terms. This is precisely why the question is being raised even during Trump’s intelligence briefings: “Who, exactly, holds the command in Tehran?” The U.S. national security team is still searching for an answer to this query.

Iran’s senior leaders are being killed off one by one. Amidst Mojtaba’s absence, Israel has continued to target key Iranian figures.

On March 16, Gholamreza Soleimani, a senior IRGC commander, was killed in an Israeli attack. On March 17, Ali Larijani—who headed Iran’s security strategy and could have served as the face of Iran at the negotiating table—was also killed in an Israeli strike. In short, Iran is losing its senior leaders one after another. Yet, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated, “The presence or absence of a single individual does not cause the Iranian system to collapse. Even Supreme Leaders have been martyred, yet the country has carried on.”

What is the real picture?

According to the Iranian government, 1,270 people have been killed since February 28. In retaliation, Iran has launched attacks on U.S. military bases, closed the Strait of Hormuz, and has been continuously firing missiles at Israel. The Real Question

A country whose supreme leader is wounded and in hiding; whose top-ranking officials are being systematically eliminated; and whose actual command rests in the hands of its military—yet, despite all this, the country continues to fight. It is launching missiles. It is keeping the Strait of Hormuz blockaded. It is holding hostage 20 percent of the world’s oil supply. Is this Iran’s true strength, or its weakness? This question will become even clearer in the days to come.